Identify the Time Frame to trade

One of the most critical elements to trade successfully is to identify your time frame of trading and then work accordingly on the charts....
The decisions - entry and exits will then be taken accordingly...

Gold may now be catching up with Risk On Trade

Just wanted to check if Gold now would be catching on with the Risk On Trade.
In Indian Rupees, it seems to have made the low and now looks like upward march will begin.

Patience needed now

There is a day to go for the expiry in Indian markets. The trend has been very strong upwards because of various obvious reasons which need to be taken into account.

Now since we are not having any positions, we would want to wait for swing setups to enter into a low risk position which would make us ride the trend.

So let the expiry happen and market show you the way which side it wants to move.

You are as good as stocks you trade

Nifty pausing to fill the gap?

Nifty may be pausing here to fill the gap created with the possible targets of 5428. But the put writing shows bullishness for the time being and the possibility of larger correction remains very low, hence expiry games will favor longs.

Changed Character of the Market

Since the rally began in 2012 in markets across the world, the character of the market has changed. First and foremost is the strong trending nature of this market which is unlike the range bound markets that we experienced for a month prior of new year.

Moreover the beaten down stocks are acting right and going to be the darlings incase you want to make money...

Stay with the trend...

Nifty weekly update - 11th Feb 2012

Nifty has a probable doji star in the making. If we gap down on monday, then we have the possibility of going into correction mode - sideways to lower for sometime.

YTD Returns 2012 - Risk On

No questions that its been risk on trade this year. And Silver has gained 20% YTD in USD terms.

Basing Action in Stocks

Today while running over charts of many scrips, I saw basing action being completed in lot of these names and they wanting and begining to breakout.

Thus it further strengthens our thesis for the trend upwards for stocks this year hence the trade directionally is up and strategy is to buy the dips and add on to the positions in this manner.

Realty, Infrastructure names which had been beaten to the extremes last year will be best suited candidates as those who would have basing action done and complete. So we will trade them.

Markets will go higher

In this post let me just try to jot down few points regarding the direction for stocks in India and as a correlated class, stocks across the world for the next few months. This mind you is not a prediction but a general sense one gets while trying to understand and read technicals of the markets.

Nifty - Made a bottom at 4531 and has been preceeded by piercing candlestick which is being confirmed this month by another strong showing. Stocs have turned up from oversold position and given a buy. The prices are above the 8 and 13month EMAs which stand at 5179 and 5233 respectively.

In the medium term - nifty has made a doji on weekly charts which shows the index may consolidate for few days now moving sideways to down. Stocs are in overbought territory but thats not the signal to sell, though profits may be booked. 5180 is a very strong support zone now and is buy of dips strategy now.

In immediate short term, the market has been overbought now and lets wait before going long, since this is not the opportunity to take fresh new long positions. 5323 has been a strong buying zone for the moment and need two closes below it to ensure that buying opportunity comes in.

Seasonality says we may have a dip only in 3rd week of Feb and then we would move higher.

Gold looks like its already bottomed out

Weekly Gold charts is shown above:- what we can see is, gold technically is now bottomed and the downside looks very little. Considering that we have risk on trade for the moment, Gold looks good to have gains going ahead. Thus only position should be long.

3i Infotech - Directional bias has changed



One stock that has my interest for the time being is 3i Infotech. 18INR seems to be a good point to get long and the risk reward ratio seem to be in favor of longs.

Gold and Whats it doing in INR

Gold in Indian Rupees had a fantastic run when it touched a high of 29713/g in the month of November 2011. Since then the metal has been trading in a range. Last close was at 27110/g in Jan 2012. Since Feb 2011 Gold has returned a net 36.81% (Not including transaction and storage charges) which is a decent return on the metal for the layman who would not want to bet the farm on non trending markets that the public has faced since the top sometime in November 2010.

Lets then just update ourselves what Gold is probable to do. Lets look at the monthly charts first. The euphoric volume has certainly died down and Macd has been forming lower histograms. After a huge negative month in december 2011 Gold made a bullish harami pattern suggesting the fall was done. Now Gold seems to be flat correcting itself when the rupee has bounced off from the lows and trending upwards. Thus flattish correction for Gold is very bullish for long term fundamentals. 

Looking at the weekly charts - Gold seems to have made the panic bottom and is just bidding its time to correct in an environment when INR is strong and markets (stocks) in India and across the world are turning bullish. 

 It seems probable that Gold would test its recent lows. That would be a buying opportunity.



Markets - Stocks and Gold: Where are they heading?

Offlately, I have been little lazy and little occupied hence not updating my blog. The reasons are I have been making some decent money in the markets and my career profile has changed, thus the learning curve is keeping me occupied.

My thoughts on this post will just summarise the trend and directional bias I see in the markets. I dont and will not give calls on this blog since I dont want to inlfuence anybodys decision making - I believe in Free Will and that should be excersised in the market since it gets rewarded beautifully. 

My take is that Indian markets have become now buy on dips. The business cycles have shortened and we will now trend higher for few months. Till what time this trend will last I dont know but i want to trade the trend and the stocks in play that will gain most. 

Your trading P&L is as good as your best stocks.